Tim's Share: Stimulating Into a Bubble
- jeanne7629
- Dec 1
- 2 min read
Honestly, when Tim shared this piece I thought, “Great! it’s been a while since I’ve read Ray Dalio.” My dad is a big fan and often sends me his books and podcasts, so I usually follow his thinking… but this time I had no idea what I was reading. So I asked ChatGPT to help me decode it. And I’m really glad Tim brought it in, because it’s exactly the kind of stretch I want for Think & Think Again: perspectives that push us outside our usual reading habits.
Here’s the ultra-simple version in case anyone else felt out of their depth:
Dalio’s point is that the Fed seems ready to start adding more money into the economy (QE) at a moment when things are already running hot; high stock prices (especially AI), easy borrowing, low unemployment, and inflation not fully tamed. Normally QE is used in a crisis, not a boom. His core question is basically: “Why are we adding fuel when the fire is already burning?”
He sees this through a long-term lens he calls the Big Debt Cycle: governments overspend, central banks step in, and eventually inflation or a bubble becomes the risk.
But Dalio isn’t a doom thinker. He believes these cycles repeat throughout history and can be navigated with clarity rather than panic. He also often points to innovation (including AI) as something that can help countries grow their way out of difficult debt periods. His message is more “stay aware and balanced” than “the sky is falling.”
For me, this felt like an invitation into a part of the economic world many of us don’t usually explore and exactly the kind of perspective I hope we keep welcoming. It’s a reminder that part of thinking again is stretching into new terrain together.
To add another perspective (isnt this what think again is meant for): Since having read "the fund" from Rob Copeland I am not trusting / following / paying attention to Ray Dalio. The book describes that Dalio is predicting doomsdays for decades and that his fund is not exactly successful longterm. That history doesn't repeat itself. This book showed me that people on stage or in public awareness are seldom challenged and people have little time to check for themselves if the claims are actually based on facts and truth (referring here to the famous "principles" which have not in reality been practiced as claimed in his firm.